THURSDAY, September 24, 2020
13:00 - 15:30 GMT
08:00 - 10:30 US CT
09:00 - 11:30 US ET
15:00 - 17:30 CET/CAT
After decades of decline and stagnation, African economies turned a corner as economic growth picked up considerably since the early 2000s. The choices of policymakers had much to do with the dramatic changes observed in Africa’s fortunes over the past decades and continue to shape Africa’s prospects in the decades to come. Weaknesses in agriculture sector and macroeconomic policies shaped the performance of African economies, which in turn stifled the capacity of countries to make the necessary growth-enhancing investments in skills, services, and infrastructure in the decades leading to and through the period of decline. Improvements in policies and investment decisions made possible the longest sustained period of economic growth in the continent (Badiane and Makombe, 2015; Conway, Badiane and Glatzel, 2019).
Many attempts have been made to explain Africa’s growth recovery through booms in global export markets or better rainfall conditions. The weakness of such arguments is that these booms and conditions are not new. They did take place in the past as well, and precisely during the very periods of economic decline. Even if one were to agree with the such arguments, one would still have to ask why African economies responded this time to positive developments in global markets and weather conditions the way they did in the last two-decades and why this resulted in a long growth period?
The answers lie in the importance of public policy. The reason for growth recovery is that improvement in policy regimes and economic governance in general placed African economies in a better position to boost agricultural production in response to better weather conditions and to grab opportunities in global markets in order to fuel domestic growth. In fact, the geographic spread and sustained character of the current recovery seen across Africa can only be explained by factors that have aff ected a broad range of countries, not only primary exporters, and have transcended variations in rainfall conditions across countries. These factors are primarily related to the painful and controversial reforms implemented by most African countries during the structural adjustment programs during the 80s and 90s. The reforms helped reduce fi scal defi cits, brought infl ation under control, created room for the private sector, and cut the level of implicit taxation faced by smallholder farmers The changes were deep and it took a while for most economies to weather them, but they emerged strengthened and poised for a remarkable recovery (Badiane et al. 2015; Devarajan and Shetty 2010).
Policy renewal efforts under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), including the role of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development, in shaping agricultural policy have been key in sustaining the recovery. Country moved to embrace evidence based policies with more rigorous and inclusive mutual accountability process leading to higher investment in the sector. By the end of fi rst decade of CAADP, average annual public sector investment in agriculture across Africa rose by nearly 90 percent compared to the 1990s. As we approach the end of the second decade of CAADP, there are signs of stagnation or even decline in annual public sector investments. An even before Covid, there has been a rising number occurrences where governments introduced policies that clearly were disruptive to operations by the private sector, costly to farmers and counterproductive in terms of
competitiveness and long term growth.
In light of new and emerging global and domestic development challenges, including rising growing populations and rising urbanization, shifting demographics, and increasing inequalities, the need to expand Africa’s economic recovery gains is even greater now than ever. If the trajectory toward better policies is not sustained, the continent may experience a return to the era of economic stagnation. As we look forward to the next couple of decades, a major economic policy question is how to sustain and broaden the current recovery process in order to further accelerate the pace of improvement in living conditions and continue to enhance prosperity for all Africans. Related questions are how to build on the reforms of the past and continue to improve economic governance in general as well as agricultural sector and structural transformation policies, in particular. At the minimum, there is need to maintain the positive changes in recent years and avoid the growing danger of reversal back to policies that have led to the lost decades of economic decline and stagnation. At best, we need to find the right mix of policies, some new, some old, that will meet the needs of rapidly modernizing agricultural value chains and transforming national economies. Mutual accountability processes to mitigate the risk of policy reversal will also be imperative.
13:00 Opening statement by Executive Chairperson
13:05 Welcome by Minister Mukeshimana
13:10 Statement from Johan Swinnen, IFPRI
13:15 Statement from Jim Barnhart, USAID
13:25 Statement from Commissioner Josefa C. Sacko, AUC
13:35 Opening Statement from PM Edouard Ngirente
13:45 Introduction of Board members
13:50 Keynote 1: Opportunities of the UN Food Systems Summit
Joachim von Braun, Director Center for Development Research, University of Bonn and Chair of Food Systems Summit Scientifi c Group
14:00 Keynote 2: Infrastructure needs for fast transforming food systems
Maximo Torero, Chief Economis, Social and Economic Development Stream, FAO
14:15 Keynote 3: Debt management and sustainability and economic recovery
Njuguna Ndung’u, Executive Director, African Economic Research Consortium
Roundtable Discussion
Djime Adoum, AKADEMIYA2063 Board mebmer, Moderator
Geraldine Mukeshimana, Minister of agriculture, Rwanda (invited)
Ertharin Cousin, AKADEMIYA2063 Board member
Paul Engel, AKADEMIYA2063 Board member
Jo Swinnen, Director General, IFPRI
15:00 Keynote 4: Presentation of AKADEMIYA2063 work on Covid-19
Ousmane Badiane, Executive Chairperson, AKADEMIYA2063
Ismahane Elouafi , AKADEMIYA2063 Board mebmer, Chair
Teri Sarch, AKADEMIYA2063 Board member, Discussant
15:20 Discussion
15:30 Closing by Minister Mukeshimana