Models & Modeling tools

AGRODEP provides a platform for sharing existing core economic models dealing with sector, national, and international policy issues as well as long-term projections in areas such as agricultural growth and poverty, trade, nutrition, climate change, natural resources management, and science and technology.

The models’ library (shared modeling infrastructure) is organized around two main pillars: simulation models and econometric models. The main goal of simulation models is to perform ex-ante analysis of various economic policies (e.g. investment decision in agricultural R&D in different sectors, potential effects of a trade agreement) or to disentangle different effects of existing policies (e.g. interaction between export taxes and import duties in international trade relations). Simulation models include Computable General Equilibrium models and Partial Equilibrium models, both in deterministic and stochastic versions, working in a static or a dynamic framework. The main software packages needed to use these models are GAMS or MS Excel.

Econometric models are primarily aimed at assessing the effects of existing policies (e.g. consequences of exchange rate policies on agricultural exports) or to identify and quantify the drivers of an economic phenomenon (e.g. determinants of trade in a gravity equation). They are also used to estimate key parameters used in simulation models (e.g. price transmission magnitude between international and domestic markets). The econometric methods used in the library include parametric and non-parametric approaches. Most of the econometric programs will require the use of STATA.

The library includes models developed and fully supported by the AGRODEP team, as well as links to models developed and managed by other partners. For instance, concerning CGE models, the former category includes models such as the IFPRI Standard Model or the MIRAGE model, while the later includes the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model.

In addition to “pure models,” the library includes a set of resources supporting the modeling work. These resources include pedagogic materials and submodules required to run the main models. The former includes the GAMS training toolbox while the latter contains the TASTE program and the Consistent Policy Aggregator Toolbox.

The modeling tools will, as the Consortium progresses, be expanded to include a set of specialized modules devoted to specific technical areas and economic sectors. Such modules will be added as needed through collaboration with other leading centers of expertise to address special needs, such as in the areas of agronomy, forestry or concerning specialized topics such as the food crisis and climate change risks and adaptation.